@InProceedings{BaltazarChouDereGome:2022:DePrCl,
               author = "Baltazar, R. and Chou, Sin Chan and Dereczynski, Claudine P. and 
                         Gomes, Jorge Lu{\'{\i}}s",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Desempenho das previs{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas sazonais do modelo 
                         ETA aninhado ao modelo BESM do INPE",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2022",
         organization = "Simp{\'o}sio da Bacia Hidrogr{\'a}fica do Rio S{\~a}o 
                         Francisco, 4.",
             keywords = "Previs{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas sazonais, Modelo Eta, 
                         avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de previs{\~o}es, Modelo BESM.",
             abstract = "Global climate models are important tools for weather and climate 
                         simulations, but the low resolution of their forecasts provide 
                         insufficient information for local-scale planning. Regional 
                         climate models allow for the downscaling and additional detailing 
                         of the forecasts produced by global models. The increase in 
                         resolution also allows for a greater ability to predict extreme 
                         events, which is important in managing water crises and preventing 
                         loss of life in natural disasters. The goal of this study is to 
                         evaluate the seasonal climate forecasts of the Eta regional model 
                         driven by the BESM forecasts, both models developed by CPTEC/INPE, 
                         focusing on extreme events that took place in the Brazil Southeast 
                         and the S{\~a}o Francisco River Basin. The evaluation of the 
                         models predictions consisted of comparing predicted precipitation 
                         anomaly values to those observed by MSWEP for a set of years of 
                         extreme drought and flood events in the southeast region, for the 
                         trimester of December, January and February from 1987 to 2010. The 
                         results indicate that the Eta40km-BESM system was able to predict 
                         the 3 extreme rainfall events identified in the studied period, 
                         failed to predict the most intense dry event and predicted the 
                         second most intense dry event. The seasonal forecast skill is 
                         limited, and current model improvement are ongoing.",
  conference-location = "Belo Horizonte/MG",
      conference-year = "2022",
                label = "lattes: 8103555820310980 1 LaureantiChaTavBalNob:2022:CaExPr",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "509904.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "21 maio 2024"
}